How Will Your Community Respond?
When I was hired to write quarterly articles for SpinSheet, I did not realize that my fifth part- time job would come with perks. In October, I was given a press pass to attend the Annapolis Sailboat Show, which I had last entered via a hole in the fence in 1983. Last weekend I put on my snazzy, navy blue SpinSheet windbreaker and attended John Englander’s lecture at St. John’s College entitled “Annapolis Prepares for Rising Seas – History Meets the Future.”
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The street next to Annapolis Maritime Museum. Photo by Helene Gregerström Elmqvist[/caption]
This was the first in a series of lectures celebrating Preservation50, which recognizes the 50th anniversary of the National Historic Preservation Act. The Key Auditorium was packed with a standing-room-only crowd with an average age of around 60. Clearly the older generation was concerned about the impacts of rising seas and how it would affect the future of the Chesapeake region. It was interesting that there were very few young people present, especially on a college campus, when this topic will have greatest effect on the next generation. Sailors have particular reason for concern, as marinas and docks are structures on the frontline for impact.
John Englander is an oceanographer, consultant, author, and president of the International Sea Level Institute, a global leadership center for “understanding and adapting to the challenges of rising sea level.” He is driven by a passion to share scientific facts in an accessible way, debunk myths, and to inspire change. While his message seems at first glance to be fully “gloom and doom,” his intent is to spur action in the face of an environmental threat that we actually know is coming.
While it is difficult to say exactly how much sea level rise the Chesapeake region will experience, Englander predicts 6.6 feet by the end of the century, forever altering shorelines and submerging properties. He recommends that citizens and governments should plan for a three-foot sea level rise as soon as possible. I found this statement in his lecture striking: “If we went to 100 percent solar energy today and never burned another bit of fossil fuel, we will still have sea level rise.” This is not to say that we should not try to slow the warming process, but the oceans and the climate have already warmed to the extent that sea level rise is irrevocable.
What causes sea level rise?
Sea levels have risen and fallen hundreds of feet over the last few million years due to changes in atmospheric and ocean temperature. Geo scientists have been able to accurately measure these cycles using deep-sea sediment cores, ice cores, carbon dating, and the marine fossil record. The peak of the last ice age was 20,000 years ago, and the earth has been in a warming phase with sea level rising around 400 feet and then stabilizing about 6000 years ago.
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This is not the waterfront... this is Compromise Street in Annapolis during a boat show high tide.[/caption]
We were poised to enter a cooling phase, but the burning of fossil fuels in the last 100 years, which has elevated carbon dioxide (think heat trap) levels to record highs, has changed the trend to warming. Carbon dioxide levels are increasing 20,000 times faster than they have in the last 540 million years. This is an unprecedented rate for such a short period of time. The melting of the ice sheets on land in Greenland and Antarctica are the primary contributors to sea level rise.
Englander emphasized the fact that sea level rise stems from melting land ice and not floating sea ice, a common misperception. To compound the problem, reflective white ice is replaced with dark sea water which then becomes a heat absorbing surface, speeding up the whole process. As oceans warm, they also rise due to thermal expansion which accounts for some of the sea level rise.
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A scene from Washington, DC's Cherry Blossom Festival, taken on March 27, 2016.[/caption]
Areas of the globe also experiencing subsidence, such as the Chesapeake region, will have higher rates of sea level rise then regions with no subsidence. A sailor does not need to travel far on the Chesapeake Bay to see areas where islands have disappeared, waterfront communities have been abandoned, and marshes have receded. Sea level rise combined with super high tides and flooding from extreme storms impact coastal communities with increasing frequency. Fifty years ago Annapolis had four days per year when streets were flooded; now the city has 40 days per year when streets are flooded.
Englander feels that Annapolis, with its position as a maritime port with historical significance and present day heritage tourism, is in a unique position to become a leader for communities in intelligently adapting a plan to act now against the threat of sea level rise. The City has a Weather it Together: Protect our Historic Seaport Initiative to “understand, plan, and act.” The City has been developing a cultural resource hazard mitigation plan and is working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on completing flood elevation studies for vulnerable properties in Annapolis and Eastport.
The Naval Academy and the City of Annapolis share 4500 feet of shoreline that will need protection. While this pales in comparison to many countries with low lying topography, it is not insignificant. While it may seem difficult to invest in something that will occur 50 years from now, the greater loss will be to ignore what science sees in our future.
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